Moore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS64 KOUN 300359
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
959 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 958 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible in
  southeastern and central Oklahoma Wednesday night through
  Thursday morning.

- Well above average temperatures this weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Fog development has occurred today in central and southern Oklahoma.
This will likely continue through the evening with moisture
advection occurring aloft. As easterly winds increase this evening,
the most concentrated areas of fog should also expand westward. Some
consideration was given to adding "dense" fog into the forecast, but
with the poor performance of CAMs in depicting
temperatures/dewpoints today, deferred decision to later shifts.
Fog should erode quickly as the Pacific front pushes through late
tonight.

Thunderstorms are still expected to begin developing toward sunset
in the southern and southeastern part of our area. Elevated
instability atop a stable surface layer will reach 500-700 J/kg
MUCAPE, sufficient for deeper updrafts that will be capable of small
hail. There is still potential for training of updrafts prior to the
Pacific front`s passage tomorrow morning. With PWATs expected to be
near 1.50 inches, there will be a flood risk in any area where this
occurs. However, the trend on the 12Z HREF was strongly toward a
southeastward shift in the preferred area for training storms, which
would keep them in FWD/TSA`s areas. We will continue to monitor for
the potential for flooding in Bryan/Atoka Counties in particular
early tomorrow.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

The Pacific front will be in the process of scouring through our
area by the beginning of the day tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will
continue in the eastern 1/2 of the area through the morning before
clearing up. During the day, the upper-level low will move eastward
across the central Plains. Given the cold air aloft, there will be
at least some chance for convective showers in northern Oklahoma.
Further south, sunny skies and westerly winds will let temperatures
rebound well in the 60s.

Ridging develops during the day on Friday. This will give us a
second straight day of temperatures warming into the upper 50s and
60s along with sunny skies.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Well above average temperatures are expected this weekend, and
the mild weather may last into early next week, especially across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. As a clipper-like system
moves across the Upper Midwest on Sunday, a colder airmass will
overspread the northern Rockies and Plains. Although the bulk of
this air will remain north through Tuesday, it possible that a
front will cool temperatures to near average Monday into Tuesday.
Little to no precipitation is expected Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Mainly LIFR conditions are expected to persist through the night
into Thursday morning before clearing out, generally west to east.
Scattered showers and storms will continue over south central
Oklahoma overnight. Winds will generally be light and variable.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  46  63  38 /  80  70  50   0
Hobart OK         52  42  60  37 /  80  60   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  54  47  64  40 /  80  70  30   0
Gage OK           45  32  56  31 /  70  80  10  10
Ponca City OK     49  43  59  37 /  30  80  60  20
Durant OK         55  51  65  41 /  80 100  90   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ019-021>030-
     033>039-044-045.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14