Moore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXUS64 KOUN 112317
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong storms capable
  of small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Additional strong to severe storms will be possible tonight
  into Sunday morning with all hazards possible, including heavy
  rainfall and flooding.

- Sunday evening into early next week will continue to feature an
  active pattern of showers and storms, some strong to severe.
  Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return
  early next week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma,
  especially if rainfall remains limited in that area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this
afternoon as minor perturbations propagate through the
southwesterly flow aloft. Deep moisture within the vertical
profile would suggest rainfall rates would be moderate with this
activity, however, given the scattered-to-isolated nature, not
expecting any flooding concerns with this activity. Perhaps a few
stronger updrafts may produce hail up to quarters, but lightning
and small hail appear to be the main concerns with the early
afternoon activity.

Our attention turns to later this evening when storms are
expected to form across west Texas, form into a line, and move
eastward across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Any isolated activity remaining as it enters the area
will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The expectation is for these storms to form into a line and move
eastward into our area, with the primary hazard being damaging
wind gusts. Perhaps a few embedded circulations are possible,
especially across far southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, where the shear is slightly better. PWAT values increase
late this evening into the overnight hours, so if a more mature
line of thunderstorms can move across the area, there will be a
risk of flooding (mainly along and south of I-40).

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Sunday`s severe risk continues to remain uncertain, as Saturday
night into Sunday morning`s storms may "overwork" the environment
and limit the destabilization during the day Sunday. Another
limiting factor to storm development is the rising mid-level
heights during the day Sunday. If the shortwave embedded within
the STJ lingers across the area during the day, mid-level heights
along the dryline will most likely increase, limiting storm
development. If the environment can recover, a dryline is expected
to mix just east of the 100th meridian, which will be the focal
point for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. There is
however, a signal for confluence along the dryline during the
afternoon, which may provide just enough lift for storms to
initiate. These trends are what we will be looking out for over
the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, if storms can form along the
dryline, all hazards will be possible, especially storms that
remain isolated in the evening hours.

A stronger mid-level system will continue to move eastward into
the Desert Southwest. Continuous southwesterly flow aloft will aid
in lee troughing along the Rockies. This will promote a continuous
fetch of low-level moisture advection across the entire area. A
dryline is expected to mix eastward once again across the 100th
meridian and slightly eastward. Mid-level heights are expected to
fall during the afternoon, which may be just enough to get storms
to initiate along the dryline. The best chance for storm
development right now appears to be along southwestern Oklahoma
into western north Texas. If any storms do develop, all hazards
will be possible with the strongest storms.

Fire weather concerns across far northwest Oklahoma may begin to
ramp up starting early next week. There a few factors that may
limit this potential. Potential rainfall this weekend would help
expedite the green up across these areas. In addition, the exact
positioning of the dryline will be a factor into what areas have
an immediate threat, especially west of the dryline. These
details are likely to be ironed out over the next few days.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Heading into the middle of the week, an active pattern remains in
place with increased southwesterly flow aloft and a passing
shortwave. Exact details on storm severity, timing and location
still remain unclear as the track of the upper system may change.
Another longwave trough axis may follow later next week with
additional storm chances possible heading into next weekend. Fire
weather next week will remain contingent on rainfall amounts over
the weekend and into next week, but elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions may return across portions of western Oklahoma
through next week. Over the next 7 days, there is some hope to
improve drought conditions across portions of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue into the
evening, becoming more numerous after midnight. Ceilings will
likely fall into MVFR and perhaps IFR overnight, with VFR
conditions returning by the afternoon as storms clear to the east.
Winds will remain from the south through the period, with gusts
over 20 kts at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  78  64  86 /  90  90  10  20
Hobart OK         61  83  60  89 /  90  70  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  64  84  65  88 / 100  80  10  20
Gage OK           57  85  56  89 /  60  40  20   0
Ponca City OK     62  77  63  85 /  70  90  10  20
Durant OK         66  77  66  83 /  60  90  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08