Moore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS64 KOUN 141119
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
519 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

-  Rainfall is expected across much of the area through Saturday
   evening. A few storms may produce severe weather.

-  Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday-Thursday
   currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Showers and storms will continue across much of the area
overnight Friday into Saturday as a mid-level trough moves across
the Desert Southwest. Surface mass response will continue to
advect higher theta-e air across much of Oklahoma. Initial storms
will be in an environment characterized by sufficient
instability and deep- layer shear, capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the night, coverage of
storms will increase, as the main lift approaches from the west.
Storms will congeal into a line and push across the southern half
of the area through Saturday. Surface observations at the time of
this AFD are already underdoing surface moisture by roughly 2F
across most of the area. That being said, models are struggling to
capture the potential for these storms to become more surface
based, especially when storms congeal into a line. As the line of
storms pushes eastward, the hail threat should diminish into the
morning, with primarily a wind threat and a low risk for
circulations embedded within the line of storms. Some locations
may up to 2-3 inches of rainfall, especially across southern
Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Further to the north,
coverage isn`t expected to be widespread, so some locations may
receive up to an inch through Saturday.

Storms will shift to the east Saturday and should push out of the
area by the afternoon. There is a chance for redevelopment
beneath the main mid-level trough as it moves across the area.
Cooling temperatures aloft will aid in sufficient instability for
small to marginally severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Aforementioned storms will move across the area through the
evening hours as a cold front sweep through the area. Temperatures
on Sunday will be mostly in the 60s across most of the area, and
roughly 5 degrees cooler than Saturday. Winds will quickly shift
to the south overnight Sunday into Monday, bringing back much
warmer temperatures across the area. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected to materialize across roughly areas north
of I-40 on Monday afternoon. Depending on how rainfall this
weekend evolves, the fire weather threat may ramp up quickly next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire weather conditions could impact our area every afternoon
next week from Tuesday on, with Thursday being the most widespread
across our area. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will
increase Gulf-based moisture transport into the Southern Plains
sharpening a dryline across western Texas. Expecting the dryline
to make its initial punch into western Oklahoma on Tuesday
afternoon. Meanwhile, a Pacific-based surface low will be tracking
across the Central Plains producing a very tight pressure
gradient across our area resulting in windy conditions Tuesday.
Late morning mixing into a strong overnight low-level jet could
produce some strong gusts up to 40 mph based on predicted 925 mb
level flow. Gusty south winds Tuesday expected to shift "westerly"
across western Oklahoma where the dryline may be punching
through. As a result we could see increased fire danger and
potential Red Flag conditions across parts of our western CWA to
Wind Advisory conditions across our remaining CWA on Tuesday
afternoon. The dryline is expected to be lingering across
southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday and Thursday and eventually pushed
out on Friday with a Pacific cold front passage. With the dryline
lingering across our southeast mid-week, very dry air coming off
the higher plains of New Mexico & Texas/OK Panhandles will settle
across our area resulting in very low afternoon RH values
maintaining fire weather conditions. Thursday may be windier with
another Pacific-low tracking through which could increase the fire
danger making it more widespread across our area. Temperatures
will stay well above normal next week peaking on Tuesday, after
which upper ridging starts breaking down and becoming just
slightly cooler from north to south until a potential cold front
passage at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Ceiling/visibility restrictions will continue at most TAF sites
through the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the southern half of the area at least through the evening hours.
a cold front will move through the area today, shifting winds from
the south to the north by 00Z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  48  63  43 /  90  50   0   0
Hobart OK         71  46  67  41 /  70  40   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  50  68  43 / 100  60   0   0
Gage OK           67  39  67  43 /  50  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  45  65  41 /  90  40   0   0
Durant OK         66  52  65  42 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...13